高盐饮食人群发生缺血性脑卒中风险的列线图模型
李宇辉 许超杰 罗 焕 郭健华
郑州大学第五附属医院，河南 郑州 450052
通信作者：李宇辉，Email：452555750@qq.com
【摘要】 目的 研究高盐饮食人群中发生缺血性脑卒中（ischemic stroke，IS）的危险因素，并建立预测高盐饮食人群发生 IS 风险的列线图。方法 收集 2020-06—2021-03 在郑州大学第五附属医院神经内五科住院和健康体检的 215 例高盐饮食者，分为 IS 组和非 IS 组，比较研究对象的基线特征。采用 Lasso 回归筛选出最优的变量数，进行单因素和多因素 Logistic 回归分析，筛选出相关变量建立预测高盐饮食者发生IS 风险的列线图。使用受试者工作特征曲线（receiver operator characteristic，ROC）、决策曲线分析法(decision curve analysis，DCA)评估模型的区分能力和临床效用。结果 共纳入高盐饮食研究对象 215 例，其中 IS 组 81 例，非 IS 组 134 例。单因素 Logistic 回归分析显示，高体重指数（BMI）、高血压史、高脂血症史、高同型半胱氨酸血症、糖尿病史、心脏病史、脑卒中史和吸烟与高盐饮食人群 IS 的发生有关（均P<0.05）；多因素 Logistic 回归分析发现，高 BMI、高血压史、心脏病史、脑卒中史、吸烟增加高盐饮食人群 IS 的发生风险（均P<0.05）。ROC 曲线下面积（0.848）以及 DCA 表明，列线图具有较好的区分能力和临床效用。结论 有高血压史、心脏病史、脑卒中史、吸烟与肥胖能增加高盐饮食人群发生 IS 的风险，列线图对预测高盐饮食人群发生 IS 的风险有较好效果。
【关键词】 缺血性脑卒中；高盐饮食；危险因素；列线图
【中图分类号】 R743.3 【文献标识码】 A 【文章编号】 1673-5110 （2022） 03-0270-06
基金项目：河南省医学科技攻关计划项目（联合共建）（编号：LHGJ20190412）
DOI：10.12083/SYSJ.220256
Risk for ischemic stroke in high salt diet population：a nomogram model
LI Yuhui，XU Chaojie，LUO Huan，GUO Jianhua
The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University，Zhengzhou 450052，China
Corresponding author：LI Yuhui，Email：452555750@qq.com
【Abstract】 Objective To study the risk factors of Ischemic stroke（IS）in population with high salt diet and to establish a nomogram to predict the risk of IS in population with high salt diet. Methods From June 2020 to March 2021，215 patients with high salt diet who were hospitalized and examined in the Department of Neurology of the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University were divided into IS group and non-IS group. The baseline characteristics of the subjects were compared. The optimal number of variables was screened by Lasso regression. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were carried out to select the related variables to establish a line chart to predict the risk of IS in high-salt diets. The distinguishing ability and clinical effectiveness of the model were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve （ROC） and decision curve analysis （DCA）. Results A total of 215 subjects with high salt diet were included in this study，including IS group（n=81）and non-IS group（n=134）. Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that high BMI，history of hypertension，history of hyperlipidemia，hyperhomocysteinemia，history of diabetes，history of heart disease，history of stroke and smoking were associated with the occurrence of IS，while multivariate Logistic regression showed that high BMI， history of hypertension，history of heart disease，history of stroke and smoking increased the risk of IS in subjects with high salt diet. The area under ROC curve（0.848）and DCA showed that the nomogram has good distinguishing ability and clinical effect. Conclusion History of hypertension，heart disease，stroke，smoking and obesity could increase the risk of IS in subjects with high salt diet. Nomogram was effective in predicting the risk of IS.
【Key words】 Ischemic stroke；High-salt diet；Risk factors；Nomogram
